Well, if you’re going to have a flat spell, it might as well be during the coldest two weeks of the season. But this weekend, it looks like temperatures will be more seasonable, and the possibility of the first truly rideable surf is in the cards.
Earlier this week, swell forecasts and computer model had the Mid-Atlantic in line for a strong ESE blow on Sunday, producing a chest- to head-high windswell. In these parts, a stiff NNW wind would follow on Monday, so depending on the exact angle, the possibility for fun, clean surf existed. The ESE-facing beaches in the Delmarva looked definitely have some clean stuff. Down South looked to be too windy all around, and still does.
But I wake up this morning and all of that has changed. While we are still forecast to receive a chest- to shoulder-high windswell on Sunday, along with air temps in the mid 50s (yes!), it’s going to be choppy and out of the ESE shifting south through the afternoon.
For Sunday, I would try to find shelter on the north sides of any of VB’s structures. First Street will probably be the best call and shouldn’t be too crowded. If it is, I’ll probably either hit 15th Street or Little Island piers.
Monday, the swell looks to drop off dramatically throughout the day with a stiff WNW breeze. The morning session could be really fun if the swell makes it through the night. Those who travel to the OBX may score the early session.
BUT, whenever a forecast gets progressively worse, that’s not a good sign. I got pretty pumped on our prospects earlier this week, but I guess this flat spell has been messing with my head and I got a little too stoked. Weather forecasting of any kind has been shown to be most accurate within three days of the forecast, and even then, the ocean is as unpredictable as any force of nature.
That said, I’ll be keeping an eye on this swell we seem to have coming our way. Trying to ride a wave in 2010…
Another unfortunate side effect of this two- to three-week stretch of offshore wind, brutal cold and flatness has been the dramatic drop in water temperatures.
It went from the low 50s, upper 40s during the post-Christmas swell all the way down to the upper 30s. Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel and Chesapeake Light Tower – our best indicators – are showing 39 degrees. All hands on deck with the rubber, because it hasn’t been this cold in a couple of years.
Fortunately, some of this has to do with upwelling since the wind has been blowing so hard for so long offshore, so the ESE blow on Saturday night/Sunday should take the edge off a little bit.
Alright, I’ll check back in if this forecast changes dramatically. Otherwise, hopefully the next post will be about actual surfing…
-- John CSB
streit posting every couple of days. love it.
ReplyDelete